On 6th March 2023 Jubilee Allianz Kenya were pleased to host Mr. Ludovic Subran – Allianz SE Chief Economist, during his visit we held a webinar on The Global Economic Outlook 2023-2024 – Keep Calm and Carry On!.

During the Webinar Mr. Ludovic presented a moderately positive outlook for the Global Economy in 2023 and 2024. He noted that the evolving energy and food crisis will shape the outlook for the year 2023. However, the continued uncertainty about gas supply and high electricity and food prices will weigh on consumer sentiment and business prospects on the back of declining corporate profits and households' real incomes, resulting in a stop-and-go growth momentum.

Allianz SE Chief economist proceeded on by mentioning that the outlook significantly depends on the impact of financial tightening across major economies and the effectiveness of fiscal support. He emphasized further that we continue to project a shallow recession in major advanced economies (US, EZ, UK) at the turn of the year, followed by a subdued recovery after mid-2023 and weak growth in 2024, especially in Europe, where financing conditions are likely to remain tighter for longer.

Mr. Ludovic also cautioned that the Global growth is likely to slow to +1.4% (-0.1pp downside revision) and to recover modestly to +2.8% in 2024, with significant divergence between advanced and emerging market countries. He also mentioned that the advanced economies will register a shallow recession of -0.1% in 2023 (after +2.5% in 2022), followed by a rebound to below-potential growth of +1.5% in 2024. However, Growth is expected to remain stable in EM in 2023 at +3.3% before rebounding to +4.3% in 2024, supported by the policy pivot as well as by China’s COVID reopening. Pressures on emerging markets that are likely to keep building due to rising internal and external imbalances, especially for commodity importers.

Read more: JAZK Webinar – The Global Economic Outlook 2023-2024 - Keep Calm and Carry on! | Allianz Connect